Is Chicago really all that violent this year versus last year?

When we began researching the issues surrounding the violence occurring on the streets of Chicago we began with this hypothesis. Although crime may have been down statistically, the reasons for the decrease were potentially based in two areas.

The first, because of advancements in medicine and emergency medical personnel experienced in combat wound treatment. This premise is based on much of what Lt. Colonel Dave Grossman has attributed to the reduction in most homicide statistics nationally. The homicide rates are down because we have actually gotten much better at keeping people alive. As a result the comparison should actually be looked at aggravated assaults with a firearm or aggravated battery cases, instead of homicides.

Our second premise was into the actual reporting of numbers that perhaps the numbers may actually be inaccurately recorded and portrayed. As luck would be told, a Blogger for Chicago Now, Megan Cottrell actually had a recent posting about how that very thing may be occurring. The article “Is Chicago fudging crime stats?” It is a true eye opener.

So when you are trying to research statistics you have to remember the old accountant joke. Remember this one...A business man is interviewing his new accountant and he asks him “What is 2+2?” The accountant looks slyly and says “What do you want it to be?” We all know that statistics are about interpretations, factors, specific criteria.

Looking for information on the Chicago Police Website we began looking towards last years statistics versus this years, to gauge was it really better or worse.

What we found was confusing to say the least!

If you look at the two pictures you can see the statistics. The numbers actually do not add up.

What we looked at are summary comparisons from January –July 2009 and January-July 2010. Look at the side by side comparison

Offense                         Jan-Jul 09        Jan-July 10

Murder                          258 (261)            257
Crime Sex Ass               860 (875)            785
Robbery                      8,976 (9,034)      7,767

Agg Assault                 3,435 (3,465)      3,091

Agg Bat                       5,984 (6,029)      5,626

Burglary                    14,083 (14,309)   14,053

Theft                         44,279 (45,445)   42,318
Motor Vehicle Theft    8,407 (8,402)     10,156
Arson                            367 (365)              305
Violent Crime            19,513(19,664)    17,526

Property Crimes        67,136(68,521)    66,832

The numbers listed in red under the Jan-Jul 09 header are numbers that were listed for the 09 period on the Jan-Jul 2010 Crime Summary. Where the numbers in black under the 2009 column appear in the Jan-Jul 2009 Crime Summary. Why would there be two sets of numbers? Why would their be such a disparate difference?

Some of the differences can be attributed to deaths that occur after the end of the year, in which people were hospitalized and then later died. Which is understandable. But how did 226 burglaries miraculous appear on the states. Were they not burglaries at the time reported? What is most interesting is how did motor vehicle theft decrease in 2008 by 24.1% only to increase 20.9% in 2010. That’s a two fold change. That statistically is catastrophic.

Looking at Aggravated Battery reports, in 09 5,984, but by the time of the 2010 summary the 2009 numbers changed to 6,029. As a point of fact not one number shown in the Jan-Jul 2010 Crime Summary for the 2009 statistics matches the numbers in the 2009 Crime Summary, which is perplexing to say the least.

Since 2008 the Chicago Police Department has been undermanned depending on who you speak to ranging from 15-20%. What however is never talked about are those officers who are on medical leave, for either duty related injuries or off duty injuries. That number is estimated at approximately 1400-1900 officers. Add into that sick call and what is called “call back” those who are not medically cleared to work and that number jumps approximately 500 more officers.

Now consider that the department is budgeted for 12,500 Officers and staff is down conservatively 15% that would put there actual boots on the street roughly around 8625 officers. Hardly enough officers to address the issues occurring on the street .

Now that the neighborhoods have entrenched gang warfare occurring between neighborhood drug trafficking groups it makes the matter extremely dangerous.

According to FBI Director Robert Mueller communities across the country have used similar measures to combat gang violence with success. Here in Chicago they have tried about all of them and they have been found to be inadequate.

Which brings us back to the story written by blogger Megan Cottrell, is Chicago fudging there numbers? A request to Chicago PD via a Freedom of Information request has yet to be answered. We await the specific comparison numbers requested, a future story will appear regarding this issue as we approach the end of the year.